Asian Session Notes 8/09/12

Resistance: 1.2402 minor / 1.2443 moderate / 1.2504 minor

Support: 1.2373 minor / 1.2330 moderate / 1.2290 minor

Euro at the close turned out with a long tail with the attempt to get out of range for the congestion from Monday failing, prices remain stuck between the 55D and 34D EMA’s. Indicators have mixed signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels while the macd is pointing up. In intraday charts we have mixed signals from the 4H picture with stochastic pushing up and macd heading lower though candlesticks has seen long tails. Hourly charts has an overbought stochastic and rising macd. Immediate risk calls for a push higher perhaps a test of the moderate resistance at 1.2440, 61.8 Fib of the June 29 sell-off, our congestion resistance, is in the offing.

NZDUSD

Resistance: 0.8161 minor / 0.8195 moderate / 0.8236 strong

Stochastic: 0.8107 minor / 0.8071 strong / 0.8035 minor

Kiwi has been selling off since Monday’s highs with th daily indicators showing a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd is also poised to cross lower. We have earlier seen a late sell-off as jobs figures from New Zealand disappointed the Unemployment Rate climbing up to 6.8% against the 6.5% consensus. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals as 4H stochastic crosses lower inline with the macd while hourly charts has a confluence of buys with new bullish crossover from macd and stochastic and a morning star. The preferred course of action is to remain sidelined with a series of Chinese data at 0130GMT and at 0530GMT. Note immediate objective for bears will be the key support at 0.8071.

AUDJPY

Resistance: 82.98 minor / 83.23 moderate / 83.55 moderate

Support: 82.46 strong / 81.95 minor / 81.53 moderate

We remain stuck inside Mondays range for AUDJPY with a spinning top for a daily candlestick as strong support levels at 82.46 hold. Daily indicators continue to see a bearish divergence from stochastic while the macd line is flat above the signal. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears in the making for 4-hour charts with stochastic poised to cross lower while macd is already heading down. Hourly charts for their part are looking bullish with stochastic just crossing up and the macd line barely above its signal line. Along with its dollar pair we expect Australian and Chinese data to provide a catalyst for price action. That said an hourly close under 82.46 should be seen as our cure for a sell-off to 81.95 possibly 81.53 moderate support level.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 1.0575 moderate / 1.0603 minor / 1.0634 strong

Support: 1.0548 minor / 1.0529 moderate / 1.0494 minor

Wednesday saw Aussy with a smaller range and alsmot equal size between the wick and the bullish real body. From indicators we have a bearish divergence in stochastic while macd looks poised to cross lower. Given the strong resistance at 1.0634 daily chart still presents a potential top. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears in 4-hour charts with stochastic just crossing lower and macd’s bearish while candles gave us a closing bozu from the Wellington session. Hourly indicators are also seeing sell signals with a double top triggered in the past hour. We face Australian jobs data and Chinese CPI figures at 0130GMT. Weakness in these two sets of figures may be a catalyst for us to see a pullback on the daily scale, ideally to the strong support at 1.0439.

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